97% — Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q1 2026 be above -0.2%
Leader: Above -0.4% at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 14 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 13:12:39 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 14 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Traders are pricing an 94% chance that France's preliminary year-over-year GDP growth for Q2 2026 will exceed -0.4%, suggesting they expect the economy to avoid a severe contraction. The high probability reflects expectations of modest economic resilience, though the tight clustering of prices around -0.2% to -0.4% indicates substantial uncertainty about whether growth will turn positive. The main drivers are labor market stability, consumer spending patterns, and industrial production trends across the eurozone. Resolution depends on the official GDP release from INSEE (France's statistical agency), typically published 30-45 days after quarter-end. Downside risks include prolonged weakness in manufacturing and services sectors, while upside catalysts include stronger-than-expected export demand or domestic investment recovery. The narrow gap between the -0.4% and -0.6% contracts (both at 94¢) suggests traders view anything weaker than -0.6% as unlikely but distinguish meaningfully between marginal contraction and stabilization near zero.

Key factors:
- Q2 2026 INSEE preliminary GDP release date and actual print relative to -0.4% threshold will directly resolve this contract
- Recent European Central Bank monetary policy decisions and eurozone growth trends shape baseline expectations for French economic momentum
- Labor force participation, unemployment rates, and wage growth data through Q2 2026 affect consumer purchasing power and domestic demand
- Manufacturing PMI and export order flows indicate whether industrial sectors can sustain activity above contraction levels
- The 92¢ price on the -0.2% threshold versus 94¢ on -0.4% suggests traders view stronger positive growth as less probable than avoiding severe contraction

Contracts:
- Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above -0.4%?: Above -0.4% — 97¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above -0.6%?: Above -0.6% — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above -0.2%?: Above -0.2% — 93¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above 0.0%?: Above 0.0% — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above 0.2%?: Above 0.2% — 84¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above 0.4%?: Above 0.4% — 72¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above 0.6%?: Above 0.6% — 44¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q2 2026 be above 0.8%?: Above 0.8% — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- ... and 6 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T12:20:49.736Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/frgdpyoyp
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20France%20GDP%20growth%20rate%20YoY%20prel%20for%20Q1%202026%20be%20above%20-0.2%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev