42% — Will Bruno Retailleau appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election Kalshi 42% · 19 contracts · $26 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-12 23:03:45 UTC Why this matters: This market estimates a 40% chance that Bruno Retailleau will officially register as a candidate for France's 2027 presidential election first round. Retailleau, a senior conservative politician and former Interior Minister, faces competing pressures: his prominent position within the Republican party could support a candidacy, but the party typically consolidates behind a single centrist or center-right contender rather than fielding multiple candidates. The probability sits below similar figures for Édouard Philippe (90%) and Éric Zemmour (72%), suggesting traders see meaningful barriers to his entry. The critical period will be late 2026 through early 2027, when formal candidacy declarations occur and party strategies crystallize. The final registration deadline and any evolving factional alignments within conservative politics will determine whether Retailleau pursues an independent run or steps back to support a unified slate. Key factors: - Retailleau's current political role and whether he maintains sufficient institutional backing to mount a credible campaign - Historical patterns of center-right party fragmentation or consolidation in French presidential contests - Statements or signals from Republican party leadership indicating their preferred candidate strategy and number of official nominees - Formal candidacy registration deadline and any announced intentions by Retailleau himself between now and early 2027 - Relative polling strength of other conservative contenders like Édouard Philippe, which could influence whether Retailleau enters or defers Contracts: - Will Édouard Philippe appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?: Édouard Philippe — 87¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 38%) - Will Gabriel Attal appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?: Gabriel Attal — 41¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 38%) - Will Bruno Retailleau appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?: Bruno Retailleau — 77¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 23%) - Will Bernard Cazeneuve appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?: Bernard Cazeneuve — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Dominique de Villepin appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?: Dominique de Villepin — 43¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Éric Zemmour appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?: Éric Zemmour — 72¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will François Asselineau appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?: François Asselineau — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will François Hollande appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?: François Hollande — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 11 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-12T22:20:50.135Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "42% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/frpresballot Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Bruno%20Retailleau%20appear%20on%20the%20official%20candidate%20list%20for%20the%20first%20round%20of%20the%202027%20French%20presidential%20election Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev