10% — Who will the FTC go after next
Leader: Tesla at 10% · Kalshi 10% · 5 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:25 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This reflects the current market estimate that Tesla will be the next company targeted by the FTC in their enforcement actions, priced at an 11% probability among the offered outcomes. Tesla has faced ongoing FTC scrutiny regarding consumer protection claims, particularly around Autopilot marketing and capabilities. The probability level suggests traders view this as a meaningful but not dominant scenario among competing alternatives. Factors that would shift this estimate include new evidence of deceptive practices, FTC staff recommendations for enforcement, or public signals from FTC leadership about priorities. The main catalyst would be official FTC action announcements or high-profile public investigations that narrow the field of potential targets, which typically occur on irregular schedules tied to staff investigations and commissioners' votes.

Key factors:
- Tesla's current FTC investigations center on Autopilot marketing claims and could advance to formal enforcement action based on staff findings
- The 11% price implies roughly 9-to-1 odds against Tesla being next, suggesting significant probability mass on competing targets
- FTC enforcement actions depend on internal investigation timelines and commission votes, not predetermined public calendars
- Recent FTC leadership statements about technology company enforcement priorities would indicate whether automotive companies are prioritized versus other sectors
- Each of the five offered outcomes in this market structure carries different baseline probabilities based on existing regulatory attention and investigation status

Contracts:
- Who will the FTC go after next?: Tesla — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Who will the FTC go after next?: Microsoft — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Who will the FTC go after next?: Amazon — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Who will the FTC go after next?: Alphabet — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Who will the FTC go after next?: Meta — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)

Cite as: "10% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ftcnext
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20the%20FTC%20go%20after%20next
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev