17% — Will Keiko Fujimori be out as President of Peru before Jul 1, 2027
Leader: Before Jan 1, 2028 at 17% · Kalshi 17% · 3 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-13 01:46:07 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market reflects a 17% probability that Keiko Fujimori will no longer be serving as President of Peru by January 1, 2028. The low probability suggests traders assess her position as relatively stable over the next six months. The main factors shaping this view are Peru's political volatility—including ongoing institutional tensions, regional protests, and criminal investigations affecting multiple political figures—weighed against the difficulty of removing a sitting president through standard mechanisms within this timeframe. Peru's presidential succession rules, congressional composition, and whether new scandals or street pressure destabilize her administration will be critical. The lack of recent trading volume in the mid-2027 contract suggests limited near-term market concern about an exit before July 2027, with more uncertainty priced in for the full year through early 2028.

Key factors:
- Peru's current institutional mechanisms for presidential removal (impeachment, resignation, or court action) and their historical frequency
- Status and velocity of ongoing criminal investigations or scandals involving Fujimori or her administration
- Congressional opposition strength and whether coalitions exist to pursue formal removal procedures
- Degree and sustainability of street-level unrest or protests targeting the government
- Changes in regional political events or international pressure that could accelerate domestic instability

Contracts:
- Will Keiko Fujimori be out as President of Peru before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 1, 2028 — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- Will Keiko Fujimori be out as President of Peru before Jul 1, 2027?: Before Jul 1, 2027 — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- Will Keiko Fujimori be out as President of Peru before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-13T01:20:51.973Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "17% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fujimoriout-26jul
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Keiko%20Fujimori%20be%20out%20as%20President%20of%20Peru%20before%20Jul%201%2C%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev