43% — Will DNC Services Corp / Democratic National Committee report more than $17M in cash on hand at the end of Q3 Kalshi 43% · 20 contracts · $23K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-23 23:27:06 UTC Why this matters: This contract asks whether the Democratic National Committee will report more than $17 million in cash on hand at the end of Q3 2026. The 53% probability reflects near-equal odds either way. The outcome depends primarily on fundraising performance during the summer months and spending on campaign operations, advertising, and administrative costs. Committee cash positions fluctuate significantly based on election-cycle timing and donor activity. The key catalyst will be the official Q3 financial disclosure filing, typically due in mid-October, which will provide definitive cash-on-hand figures. Interpreting the probability requires understanding that the DNC's cash position serves as an indicator of organizational financial health and campaign readiness heading into the final stretch before November elections. Key factors: - The DNC reported specific cash-on-hand figures in prior quarters that establish a baseline for assessing whether $17M represents a realistic or stretched threshold - Summer 2026 fundraising performance relative to typical cycle patterns will directly affect available cash by end of Q3 - Campaign spending commitments already announced or expected during Q3 will reduce cash reserves - The spread of related contracts (93¢ at $8M, 76¢ at $14M, 54¢ at $17M, 51¢ at $20M) suggests market uncertainty concentrated around the $14-20M range - October mid-month financial disclosure filing will provide the definitive resolution with no room for interpretation Contracts: - Will the National Republican Senatorial Committee report more than $20M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?: Above $20M — 79¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 15%) - Will the National Republican Senatorial Committee report more than $45M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?: Above $45M — 26¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 11%) - Will the National Republican Senatorial Committee report more than $30M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?: Above $30M — 65¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 10%) - Will Talarico for Texas report more than $50M in total receipts during Q3?: Above $50M — 16¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 9%) - Will the National Republican Senatorial Committee report more than $15M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?: Above $15M — 90¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 8%) - Will the Congressional Leadership Fund report more than $145M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?: Above $145M — 44¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 8%) - Will the National Republican Senatorial Committee report more than $25M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?: Above $25M — 75¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 6%) - Will the National Republican Senatorial Committee report more than $35M in cash on hand at the end of Q3?: Above $35M — 48¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 5%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-23T23:20:50.467Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "43% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/fundraising Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20DNC%20Services%20Corp%20%2F%20Democratic%20National%20Committee%20report%20more%20than%20%2417M%20in%20cash%20on%20hand%20at%20the%20end%20of%20Q3 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev