84% — GA-13 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader: Jasmine Clark at 84% · Polymarket 84% · 3 contracts · $95 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 05:53:22 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The 43% probability reflects market expectations that a particular candidate will win Georgia's 13th congressional district Democratic primary. This reflects uncertainty about candidate strength, voter preferences, and turnout patterns in the district. The probability would move higher if early polling shows a frontrunner consolidating support, or lower if multiple competitive candidates dilute the vote or if endorsements shift the race dynamics. The primary election date and any scheduled debates or candidate forums will be key moments that could shift market sentiment as voters gain more information about the candidates' positions and viability.

Key factors:
- Primary election date and voter registration data for GA-13 showing whether turnout expectations have changed
- Recent polling or internal survey results from the district indicating whether the leading candidate maintains or loses support relative to competitors
- Endorsements from established Democratic figures or organizations that could signal candidate viability and fundraising capacity
- Campaign finance reports showing which candidates have raised funds and whether any have dropped out or suspended operations
- Demographic and historical primary turnout patterns in GA-13 compared to recent special election or general election participation rates

Contracts:
- GA-13 Democratic Primary Winner: Jasmine Clark — 84¢ Polymarket $75 (weight 79%)
- GA-13 Democratic Primary Winner: Everton Blair Jr. — 11¢ Polymarket $10 (weight 11%)
- GA-13 Democratic Primary Winner: Joe Lester — 3¢ Polymarket $10 (weight 11%)

Cite as: "84% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ga13-democratic-primary-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=GA-13%20Democratic%20Primary%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev