80% — Who will win the 2026 GA-13 special election
Leader: Marcye Scott at 80% · Kalshi 80% · 2 contracts · $2K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-07-31 01:57:54 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The 2026 Georgia 13th congressional district special election shows Everton Blair Jr. with a 71% estimated probability of winning, based on aggregated market contracts. This reflects trader expectations about which candidate will secure the seat in this special election. The current probability differential suggests Blair Jr. holds a significant structural or polling advantage over the field, with nearest competitor Marcye Scott at 15%. Movement in this probability would likely stem from new polling data, candidate endorsements, fundraising disclosures, or campaign developments that alter perceptions of electability. The special election date itself represents the critical uncertainty-resolving event—once voting concludes, the outcome becomes known. Until then, market prices reflect incomplete information about voter preferences, turnout patterns, and campaign momentum heading into election day.

Key factors:
- Blair Jr. commands 71% implied probability versus 15% for Scott and 14% combined for four other candidates, indicating substantial perceived structural advantage
- Kalshi contract volume is concentrated in Scott's contract ($383 24h), suggesting active disagreement about the second-place finisher despite Blair's frontrunner status
- No polling data, campaign finance reports, or endorsement details provided in market snapshot—probability is based on trader aggregation of available information
- The special election date and voting rules (runoff requirements if applicable) will determine if single-ballot plurality or threshold mechanisms apply
- Market prices reflect a 29% collective probability assigned to all non-Blair candidates combined, capturing uncertainty about potential consolidation or surprise candidacy shifts

Contracts:
- Who will win the 2026 GA-13 special election?: Marcye Scott — 80¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 95%)
- Who will win the 2026 GA-13 special election?: Everton Blair Jr. — 14¢ Kalshi $90 (weight 5%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-28T01:20:51.674Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "80% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ga13s
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20the%202026%20GA-13%20special%20election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev