94% — Will anyone win the 2026 Georgia Commissioner of Insurance general election election in the first round Leader: Commissioner of Agriculture at 94% · Kalshi 94% · 9 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-24 23:07:22 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes. Why this matters: This market estimates an 83% probability that Georgia's Commissioner of Insurance race will produce a winner in the general election without requiring a runoff. Georgia law typically mandates runoffs when no candidate exceeds 50% of votes. The high probability reflects expectations that the leading candidate will likely surpass that threshold outright. Comparable statewide races show similar runoff avoidance rates: the gubernatorial race trades at 75%, while Labor and Agriculture Commissioner races each sit at 80%. The outcome depends on candidate field size, voter turnout patterns, and vote consolidation around frontrunners. The general election on November 4, 2026, will definitively resolve whether a runoff becomes necessary, making it the critical date for market settlement. Key factors: - Field size and fragmentation: Fewer candidates increase the probability of someone exceeding 50%; additional third-party or write-in candidacies reduce it - Turnout relative to primary: Lower general election participation makes 50% thresholds easier to clear; higher turnout can fragment the vote - Geographic concentration: Vote clustering around a single candidate's base increases first-round victory probability - Comparison to other 2026 Georgia races: Labor (80%) and Agriculture (83%) show similar expectations; Attorney General (78%) suggests runoff risk varies by office - Campaign dynamics and late shifts: Unexpected endorsements, campaign momentum, or late-breaking controversies between now and November could alter vote distribution Contracts: - Will anyone win the 2026 Georgia Commissioner of Agriculture general election election in the first round?: Commissioner of Agriculture — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - Will anyone win the 2026 Georgia United States Senate general election election in the first round?: Senate — 90¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - Will anyone win the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial general election election in the first round?: Governor — 88¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - Will anyone win the 2026 Georgia Commissioner of Labor general election election in the first round?: Commissioner of Labor — 87¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - Will anyone win the 2026 Georgia Lieutenant Governor general election election in the first round?: Lieutenant Governor — 87¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - Will anyone win the 2026 Georgia Attorney General general election election in the first round?: Attorney General — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - Will anyone win the 2026 Georgia Commissioner of Insurance general election election in the first round?: Commissioner of Insurance — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - Will anyone win the 2026 Georgia Secretary of State general election election in the first round?: Secretary of State — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-24T22:20:52.481Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ga1round Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20anyone%20win%20the%202026%20Georgia%20Commissioner%20of%20Insurance%20general%20election%20election%20in%20the%20first%20round Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev