71% — 2026 Game of the Year
Leader: Grand Theft Auto VI at 71% · Kalshi 71% · 3 contracts · $7K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:39 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 31% probability represents the likelihood that a video game will be named Game of the Year in 2026 by a major awarding body. The aggregate figure is pulled from two venues showing notable disagreement: Kalshi's contracts average 34% while Polymarket's average 5%, suggesting different trader bases may be pricing similar outcomes differently. Key drivers of this probability include the quality and commercial success of major title releases scheduled for 2026, the voting composition and criteria of major award organizations like The Game Awards and BAFTA, and uncertainty around which games will generate sufficient critical and player consensus. The resolution date depends on award announcement timing, typically occurring in November and December 2026. Traders are effectively betting on whether the industry will reach broad agreement on an exceptional game worthy of the year's highest honor.

Key factors:
- Major AAA game releases in 2026 and their critical reception scores (Metacritic 90+) versus prior years
- Voting eligibility rules and participating studios/publishers in major award ceremonies scheduled for Q4 2026
- Historical Game of the Year voting margins and whether any single title has emerged with consensus support by October 2026
- Release date clustering and whether meaningful competition exists or one title dominates market share and reviews
- The composition of voting bodies (critics, players, industry voters) and their historical preference patterns for specific genres or studios

Contracts:
- 2026 Game of the Year?: Grand Theft Auto VI — 71¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 65%)
- 2026 Game of the Year?: Resident Evil Requiem — 13¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 33%)
- 2026 Game of the Year?: Half-Life 3 — 6¢ Kalshi $123 (weight 2%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:49.103Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "71% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/gameawards
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=2026%20Game%20of%20the%20Year
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev