38% — Will Kingdom Hearts 4 release this year
Kalshi 38% · 6 contracts · $865 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 03:10:18 UTC

Why this matters:
A 32% probability means traders estimate roughly one-in-three odds that Kingdom Hearts 4 will launch before year-end 2026. The game was announced in 2022 but has had minimal public updates since then, which suppresses expectations compared to franchises with active development communication. The probability could shift significantly based on upcoming gaming industry announcements—particularly any reveals at major events like Summer Game Fest (typically June) or industry showcases where Square Enix might provide release timeline clarity. Historical Kingdom Hearts release patterns show multi-year development cycles, and the lack of a confirmed 2026 window in official communications keeps the market probability relatively cautious. A concrete release date announcement would be the primary uncertainty resolver, as would any official statement pushing the launch beyond 2026.

Key factors:
- No official 2026 release date has been announced by Square Enix as of May 2026
- The last significant Kingdom Hearts 4 update occurred in 2022; minimal public communication about development progress or timeline in recent years
- Kingdom Hearts games historically require 3-5 year development cycles; typical pre-release marketing campaigns begin 6-12 months before launch
- Major gaming industry events (Summer Game Fest, Tokyo Game Show, PlayStation/Xbox showcases) are scheduled through fall 2026 and would be natural venues for release date announcements
- Previous Kingdom Hearts mainline releases (KH3 in 2019, KH Re:Chain of Memories in 2004) all had substantial marketing visibility within 12 months of launch

Contracts:
- Will Squadron 42 release this year?: Squadron 42 — 13¢ Kalshi $513 (weight 59%)
- Will Half-Life 3 release this year?: Half-Life 3 — 11¢ Kalshi $324 (weight 37%)
- Will Halo: Campaign Evolved release this year?: Halo: Campaign Evolved — 97¢ Kalshi $23 (weight 3%)
- Will Marvel's Wolverine release this year?: Wolverine — 92¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 1%)
- Will Kingdom Hearts 4 release this year?: Kingdom Hearts 4 — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Light No Fire release this year?: Light No Fire — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T02:20:49.182Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "38% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/gamerelease
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Kingdom%20Hearts%204%20release%20this%20year
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev