9% — Will gas hit __ by end of May?: ↓ $4.20
Leader: ↑ $4.60 at 9% · Polymarket 9% · 3 contracts · $373 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 21:13:02 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market measures whether the average U.S. gas price will fall below $4.20 per gallon by May 31, 2026. Currently priced at 27%, the outcome leans toward gas staying above that threshold, though traders see material probability of a dip below it. Movement in crude oil prices and seasonal demand patterns heading into summer typically drive these contracts. The contract expires May 31, giving markets approximately 4 days to resolve; final weekly EIA petroleum inventory data and any last-minute crude price shifts before month-end will be the primary drivers of late movement. Polymarket volume ($1.55k across top contracts) suggests moderate but real trader interest, with the $4.60 ceiling contract commanding the most conviction.

Key factors:
- Current WTI crude and refined product prices are the primary physical determinant; a drop of 3-5% in crude would meaningfully increase downside probability
- EIA weekly petroleum inventory reports through May 28 will provide fresh supply/demand signals; larger-than-expected inventory builds could weaken prices
- Expiration is May 31, 2026 with only 4 calendar days remaining; limited time for new catalysts means current price trends dominate settlement risk
- The $4.60 contract leading at 27% suggests traders expect prices to cluster in the $4.25–$4.60 range, making sub-$4.20 a minority outcome
- Seasonal demand acceleration into summer typically supports prices, providing structural headwind against a sharp month-end decline

Contracts:
- Will gas hit __ by end of May?: ↑ $4.60 — 9¢ Polymarket $178 (weight 48%)
- Will gas hit __ by end of May?: ↓ $4.25 — 4¢ Polymarket $122 (weight 33%)
- Will gas hit __ by end of May?: ↓ $4.20 — 4¢ Polymarket $73 (weight 20%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:08.298Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "9% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/gas-hit-may
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20gas%20hit%20__%20by%20end%20of%20May%3F%3A%20%E2%86%93%20%244.20
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev