95% — Who will win 2026 Georgia Secretary of State Republican primary
Kalshi 95% · 1 contracts · $917 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-17 13:39:51 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the chance that an unnamed candidate wins the Republican primary for Georgia Secretary of State in 2026. The 35% current level suggests a competitive race with multiple viable candidates, though the wide gap between Kalshi and Polymarket assessments (33% vs 79%) indicates significant market disagreement about which candidate or outcome this refers to. Movement in this probability would depend on candidate announcements, fundraising reports, and polling data as the primary approaches. The race will be resolved when Georgia holds its Republican primary election, currently scheduled for late spring or early summer 2026. Factors affecting the outcome include incumbent positioning, endorsements from state party leadership, voter turnout patterns in Republican-leaning areas, and how candidates differentiate themselves on election integrity issues given Georgia's profile in national politics.

Key factors:
- Unclear candidate identification in market contracts creates ambiguity about what specific outcome drives the 35% probability
- Significant 46-percentage-point divergence between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests traders on different platforms are pricing fundamentally different scenarios or have different information
- Georgia Secretary of State races hinge partly on positioning relative to 2020 election controversies, which could influence primary voters differently than in other states
- Candidate fundraising and field organization reports, typically released quarterly, will provide concrete data on viable contenders
- Primary timing and potential runoff rules under Georgia law may affect the probability threshold and which candidate benefits most from fractured support

Contracts:
- Who will win 2026 Georgia Secretary of State Republican primary?: Tim Fleming — 95¢ Kalshi $917 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-17T01:20:22.657Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/gasosr
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%202026%20Georgia%20Secretary%20of%20State%20Republican%20primary
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev