43% — Will Output Token Price of OpenAI GPT 5.5 be at or below $20/MTok in 2026
Leader: $25/MTok or below at 43% · Kalshi 43% · 4 contracts · $6 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-27 14:07:17 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that OpenAI's GPT 5.5 output tokens will cost $20 or less per million tokens by end-2026. The 19% price reflects skepticism that pricing will reach this threshold, with markets assigning higher probability (38%) to staying below $25/MTok. Pricing depends on model efficiency gains, competitive pressure, and OpenAI's pricing strategy post-release. The contract resolves upon GPT 5.5's official launch and published pricing; if the model releases before year-end 2026, actual pricing terms will determine the outcome. If launch delays beyond 2026, the contract expires unresolved. Near-term resolution depends on OpenAI's announcement timing and whether pricing undercuts current GPT-4 rates substantially enough to hit the $20 threshold.

Key factors:
- GPT 5.5 must launch before December 31, 2026 with publicly available output token pricing to enable contract resolution
- Current output token pricing for GPT-4 Turbo is approximately $0.03/1K tokens ($30/MTok), so $20/MTok requires a 33% price reduction or efficiency improvement
- Competitive pricing from Claude 3 and other models, along with volume-based discounting trends, influences whether OpenAI targets aggressive pricing at or below $20/MTok
- Model inference efficiency and computational cost improvements directly correlate to published output token pricing
- No official launch date or pricing announcement for GPT 5.5 has been confirmed as of June 2026, creating uncertainty about resolution timing

Contracts:
- Will Output Token Price of OpenAI GPT 5.5 be at or below $25/MTok in 2026?: $25/MTok or below — 43¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Output Token Price of OpenAI GPT 5.5 be at or below $20/MTok in 2026?: $20/MTok or below — 32¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Output Token Price of OpenAI GPT 5.5 be at or below $15/MTok in 2026?: $15/MTok or below — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Output Token Price of OpenAI GPT 5.5 be at or below $10/MTok in 2026?: $10/MTok or below — 12¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-27T12:20:49.053Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "43% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/gbt55oy
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Output%20Token%20Price%20of%20OpenAI%20GPT%205.5%20be%20at%20or%20below%20%2420%2FMTok%20in%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev