97% — Will **real GDP** increase by more than 4.0% in Q1 2026 Leader: Above 0.0% at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 20 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-24 14:18:16 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes. Why this matters: This question assesses whether U.S. real GDP will grow faster than 4.0% annualized in the first quarter of 2026. At 92% probability, markets are pricing this as highly likely. The current assessment reflects recent economic momentum: labor markets remain relatively resilient, consumer spending has held up, and inflation has moderated from peak levels, creating conditions that could support above-trend growth. The primary bearish case rests on potential demand slowdown, tightening financial conditions, or external shocks. Resolution depends on the Bureau of Economic Analysis's official Q1 2026 real GDP estimate, scheduled for release in late April 2026. The gap between the leader's high confidence (92%) and the runner-up's lower probability (87%) suggests material uncertainty persists about whether growth will exceed the 4.0% threshold versus staying between 2.5–3.5%. Key factors: - Q1 2026 labor force participation and employment levels relative to trend — weak job growth would reduce income and consumption capacity - PCE spending momentum through March 2026 — consumer spending accounts for roughly 70% of GDP and recent retail data suggests moderate but not exceptional demand - Federal Reserve policy stance and financial conditions between now and Q1 2026 — restrictive rates or credit tightening could dampen investment and hiring - Goods trade balance and inventory accumulation — large imports or inventory rundown could subtract significantly from GDP calculation - Official BEA release of Q1 2026 real GDP estimate in late April 2026 — this is the deterministic resolution event that will settle the contract Contracts: - Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.0% in Q3 2026?: Above 0.0% — 97¢ Kalshi $99 (weight 8%) - Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.5% in Q3 2026?: Above 0.5% — 94¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 0%) - Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.0% in Q1 2027?: Above 0.0% — 90¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.0% in Q3 2026?: Above 1.0% — 87¢ Kalshi $33 (weight 3%) - Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.5% in Q1 2027?: Above 0.5% — 80¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.5% in Q3 2026?: Above 1.5% — 78¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will **real GDP** increase by more than 1.0% in Q1 2027?: Above 1.0% — 70¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will **real GDP** increase by more than 2.0% in Q3 2026?: Above 2.0% — 67¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-24T13:20:49.441Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/gdp Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20**real%20GDP**%20increase%20by%20more%20than%204.0%25%20in%20Q1%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev