62% — US Nominal GDP in 2026
Kalshi 62% · 18 contracts · $268 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 00:16:03 UTC

Why this matters:
The 59% probability reflects market expectations that US nominal GDP will reach a specific threshold in 2026. This outcome depends primarily on two factors: the baseline economic growth rate and inflation levels throughout the year. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and inflation trajectory will be critical—higher rates could slow growth, while persistent inflation could boost nominal figures even if real growth stagnates. The most significant resolution point comes in late 2026 when the Bureau of Economic Analysis releases preliminary full-year GDP figures, typically in late January 2027. Until then, quarterly GDP reports and inflation data releases will provide incremental clarity. Current market pricing suggests moderate confidence in meeting the threshold, with substantial uncertainty remaining about the year's full economic performance.

Key factors:
- Real GDP growth rate for 2026 relative to 2025, which directly affects the numerator of nominal output
- Average inflation rate (measured by PCE or CPI) throughout 2026, as nominal GDP = real GDP × price level
- Federal Reserve monetary policy stance and interest rate changes, which influence both growth and inflation expectations
- Quarterly GDP reports released by BEA (January, April, July, October) that update year-to-date nominal figures
- Final nominal GDP figure released in late January 2027, which definitively settles the contract outcome

Contracts:
- Japan Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $4.3 trillion — 47¢ Kalshi $267 (weight 100%)
- Japan Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $4.5 trillion — 21¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- Australia Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $1.6 trillion — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Australia Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $1.7 trillion — 89¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Australia Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $1.8 trillion — 88¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Australia Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $1.9 trillion — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Australia Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.0 trillion — 82¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Australia Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $2.1 trillion — 55¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 10 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-23T23:20:50.513Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "62% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/gdpnom
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=US%20Nominal%20GDP%20in%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev