95% — US Nominal GDP in 2026
Leader: Above $29.0 trillion at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 20 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 04:00:17 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations for U.S. nominal GDP to reach a specific threshold in 2026. The 52% probability suggests roughly even odds, indicating significant uncertainty about whether nominal growth will exceed current market consensus levels. The main drivers are near-term inflation dynamics and real economic growth rates. Q2 2026 GDP data, which will be released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in late May or early June, serves as the critical upcoming data point to resolve this uncertainty. The extremely low pricing on contracts betting for nominal growth above 2.5% in Q2 2026 (3¢) versus modest pricing on 1.5% growth (23¢) indicates markets view sustained higher nominal growth as unlikely in the near term, though full-year figures may differ from quarterly snapshots.

Key factors:
- Q2 2026 BEA advance GDP report will provide the first official quarterly nominal growth data, directly informing whether thresholds are met
- Core inflation readings throughout April and May will influence expectations for price growth component of nominal GDP
- Federal Reserve policy stance and any signaled rate changes affect both inflation expectations and real growth prospects
- Corporate earnings and labor market data in May-June will shape forecasts for nominal growth acceleration or deceleration
- Comparisons to 2025 baseline nominal GDP levels will determine whether 2026 targets require acceleration versus continuation of existing trends

Contracts:
- US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $29.0 trillion — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%)
- US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $29.2 trillion — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%)
- US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $29.4 trillion — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%)
- US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $29.6 trillion — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%)
- US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $29.8 trillion — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%)
- US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $30.0 trillion — 93¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%)
- US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $30.2 trillion — 93¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%)
- US Nominal GDP in 2026?: Above $30.4 trillion — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 5%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T03:20:13.190Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/gdpnom
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=US%20Nominal%20GDP%20in%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev