10% — GDP growth in 2026
Leader: 0.0% or Below at 10% · Kalshi 10% · 19 contracts · $22K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-10 12:59:35 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 19 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that 2026 U.S. GDP growth will land between 1.6% and 2.0%, the most likely outcome among 15 possible ranges. The concentration near the lower end of historical growth rates suggests traders anticipate moderating economic momentum, potentially driven by tightening monetary policy effects or weakening consumer demand. The narrow spread between the leading outcome (26%) and its runner-up (24%) indicates genuine uncertainty—traders assign meaningful probability mass across multiple scenarios from below 1% to above 3%. Resolution depends on official GDP data releases throughout 2027, with the preliminary estimate for full-year 2026 arriving in late January 2027, though quarterly reports will provide early signals starting in spring 2026. Key drivers traders monitor include inflation persistence, Federal Reserve rate decisions, labor market stability, and consumer spending patterns through the remainder of 2026.

Key factors:
- The leading contract (1.6–2.0%) trades at 26¢ while the 2.1–2.5% contract trades at 24¢, indicating traders see near-equal odds of slightly slower vs. slightly faster growth
- Volume concentration in the 3.1–3.5% contract ($143 in 24-hour volume) versus near-zero volume in most other buckets suggests outlier scenarios have few committed participants
- No single outcome exceeds 30%, meaning no growth range commands consensus confidence
- The distribution clusters heavily in the 1.1–2.5% range (64% combined probability), with minimal probability assigned to either recession-level (<1%) or strong growth (>3%) scenarios
- Preliminary 2026 GDP data releases begin April 2027, but quarterly estimates in early 2027 will narrow uncertainty well before then

Contracts:
- GDP growth in 2035?: 0.0% or Below — 10¢ Kalshi $989 (weight 5%)
- GDP growth in 2036?: 2.1% to 2.5% — 9¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 10%)
- GDP growth in 2035?: 1.6% to 2.0% — 8¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 8%)
- GDP growth in 2035?: 0.6% to 1.0% — 8¢ Kalshi $896 (weight 4%)
- GDP growth in 2035?: 2.1% to 2.5% — 7¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 10%)
- GDP growth in 2035?: 3.1% to 3.5% — 7¢ Kalshi $950 (weight 4%)
- GDP growth in 2035?: 2.6% to 3.0% — 7¢ Kalshi $897 (weight 4%)
- GDP growth in 2035?: 1.1% to 1.5% — 6¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 5%)
- ... and 11 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-10T12:20:49.716Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "10% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/gdpyear
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=GDP%20growth%20in%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev