26% — GDP growth in 2026
Leader: 1.6% to 2.0% at 26% · Kalshi 26% · 16 contracts · $73 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-24 06:33:00 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 16 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 19% probability reflects market expectations that US GDP growth will reach or exceed 3.5% in 2026. The forecast sits well below 50%, suggesting traders expect moderate growth rather than robust expansion. Current contract pricing shows the highest concentration of bets (24¢) on 2.0–2.5% growth, indicating consensus around slower-than-recent-trend performance. The gap between Kalshi (32% average) and Polymarket (16% average) suggests disagreement about growth likelihood—possibly reflecting different interpretations of inflation trajectories, labor market cooling, or Federal Reserve policy timing. The Q1 2026 GDP report, typically released in late April, will provide actual data that either validates or contradicts current market positioning. Traders face uncertainty around consumer spending resilience, business investment, and whether recent disinflation gains will hold without triggering a slowdown.

Key factors:
- Q1 2026 GDP print released late April 2026 will provide actual growth data; markets currently price subdued expectations with majority bets clustered at 2.0–2.5%
- 16 percentage-point premium on Kalshi contracts versus Polymarket suggests structural differences in how venues' user bases assess growth probability or interpret available economic indicators
- Highest-volume contract (US GDP 3.0–3.5%, $1,234 24h vol) trades at only 7¢, indicating low conviction that growth will exceed 3% but fall short of 3.5%
- Multiple low-priced tails (<1.0% and 1.0–1.5% combined represent only 19¢ in implied probability), suggesting markets assign minimal recession or near-stagnation risk
- Recent Fed policy stance and published economic forecasts from CBO and major banks will influence pre-data positioning and post-release repricing

Contracts:
- GDP growth in 2026?: 1.6% to 2.0% — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- GDP growth in 2026?: 2.1% to 2.5% — 24¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- GDP growth in 2027?: 2.6% to 3.0% — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- GDP growth in 2026?: 1.1% to 1.5% — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- GDP growth in 2026?: 2.6% to 3.0% — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- GDP growth in 2027?: 2.1% to 2.5% — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- GDP growth in 2029?: 2.6% to 3.0% — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- GDP growth in 2027?: 1.1% to 1.5% — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 8 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-24T06:20:49.023Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "26% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/gdpyear
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=GDP%20growth%20in%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev