38% — Gemini 3.5 released by...
Leader: July 31 at 38% · Polymarket 38% · 3 contracts · $10K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:22:02 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 23% chance that Google releases Gemini 3.5 by May 31, 2026. The probability reflects uncertainty about Google's release timeline, with contracts suggesting traders view a June 30 deadline (40¢) as significantly more likely than May 31 (19¢). The main drivers are Google's historical release pace for iterative model updates and public statements about their AI roadmap. The May 31 deadline is the nearest near-term catalyst; if Google announces or releases Gemini 3.5 before then, the May contract resolves positively. If no announcement occurs by early June, traders would likely shift probability to the June 30 contract, indicating sequential rather than simultaneous releases are expected.

Key factors:
- Google's track record shows roughly 4-6 month intervals between major Gemini releases (2.0 to 3.0); current date is May 3, giving only 28 days until May 31 deadline
- The June 30 contract trades at 40¢ versus 19¢ for May 31, suggesting the market assigns 2x higher probability to the later date, indicating concentration of releases in Q2
- No official Google announcement or leak as of May 3, 2026 confirms a May 31 release, which typically would be publicly disclosed weeks in advance
- Competing LLM releases (Grok 5 showing 10¢ for June 30) suggest crowded release windows may influence timing decisions
- Trading volume on the May 31 contract ($1,448 in 24h) is substantial enough to indicate active price discovery rather than illiquidity-driven mispricing

Contracts:
- Gemini 3.5 released by...?: July 31 — 38¢ Polymarket $24 (weight 0%)
- Gemini 3.5 released by...?: June 30 — 33¢ Polymarket $3K (weight 27%)
- Gemini 3.5 released by...?: May 31 — 15¢ Polymarket $7K (weight 73%)

Cite as: "38% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/gemini-35-released
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Gemini%203.5%20released%20by...
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev