87% — Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Jul 17, 2026 Leader: Before Aug 31, 2026 at 87% · Kalshi 87% · 4 contracts · $10K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-03 11:04:19 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes. Why this matters: Markets estimate an 86% probability that Google releases Gemini 3.5 Pro before July 31, 2026, with the July 17 deadline showing 56% odds. The high confidence reflects Google's established cadence of quarterly model releases and recent statements about acceleration in their AI development cycle. However, significant uncertainty remains in the near term: the June 30 deadline trades at just 5%, suggesting skepticism about an imminent release. The main drivers are Google's historical release patterns, competitive pressure from other AI labs, and any technical delays. Resolution hinges on whether Google makes an official announcement and release between now and late July, with the next 3-4 weeks being critical given the steep probability drop-off after mid-July. Market pricing suggests traders expect an announcement sometime in mid-to-late July rather than immediate release. Key factors: - Google has historically released major Gemini models (Pro, Ultra variants) on roughly quarterly cycles; the last significant Pro-tier release timing and any public roadmap statements would inform expectations - The 56% probability for July 17 versus 86% for July 31 indicates markets price meaningful uncertainty about the exact timing, suggesting no confirmed announcement or leaked release date currently exists - Competitive dynamics: releases from competitors (OpenAI, Anthropic, others) or market announcements in June-July could accelerate or delay Google's release strategy - The low 5% probability before June 30 reflects only 4 days remaining and suggests near-zero market confidence in an imminent release at current date - Trading volume is minimal across all contracts ($0-1 24h volume), indicating limited liquidity and potentially thin price discovery rather than consensus conviction Contracts: - Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Aug 31, 2026?: Before Aug 31, 2026 — 87¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 23%) - Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Aug 21, 2026?: Before Aug 21, 2026 — 80¢ Kalshi $801 (weight 8%) - Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Aug 16, 2026?: Before Aug 16, 2026 — 76¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 44%) - Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Aug 7, 2026?: Before Aug 7, 2026 — 14¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 25%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-03T10:20:49.618Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "87% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/gemini-gemi35p Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Google%20release%20Gemini%203.5%20Pro%20before%20Jul%2017%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev