78% — Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026?: 0.4-0.6%
Kalshi 90% · Polymarket 29% · 5 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 04:32:01 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 61pp (Kalshi higher)

Why this matters:
This contract estimates a 44% chance that Germany's economic growth in the first quarter of 2026 falls between 0.4% and 0.6% year-over-year. The probability reflects significant disagreement between venues—Kalshi traders at 48% versus Polymarket at 27%—suggesting genuine uncertainty about German economic momentum. Germany's growth prospects depend heavily on industrial production trends, consumer spending patterns, and external demand from eurozone partners. The key driver pushing probability downward is concern over manufacturing weakness and structural headwinds facing Europe's largest economy. Resolution will come with the official GDP flash estimate, typically released in late April or early May 2026. The wide venue gap indicates traders lack consensus on whether Germany will show modest recovery or continued stagnation in the quarter.

Key factors:
- German manufacturing PMI and industrial production data from Q1 2026 show whether the sector sustained momentum or contracted further
- Consumer confidence indices and retail sales figures indicate domestic demand strength relative to consensus expectations of 0.4-0.6% growth
- Q1 2026 exports and trade balance data reveal whether external demand from other eurozone economies supported or hindered growth
- Kalshi's higher probability (48%) versus Polymarket (27%) suggests different interpretation of flash estimates, possibly reflecting differing weighting of preliminary versus final data
- Official Destatis GDP flash release for Q1 2026 will directly resolve the contract with definitive year-over-year growth figure

Contracts:
- Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2.6%?: Above 2.6% — 71¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2.4%?: Above 2.4% — 96¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2.2%?: Above 2.2% — 97¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2.0%?: Above 2.0% — 96¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026: 6.0-7.0% — 29¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 20%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T04:20:13.083Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "78% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/germany-gdp-growth-q1
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Germany%20GDP%20growth%20in%20Q1%202026%3F%3A%200.4-0.6%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev