65% — Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire
Leader: Germany at 65% · Polymarket 65% · 3 contracts · $15 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 05:08:55 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects traders' assessment that Germany will defeat Côte d'Ivoire in an upcoming match. The 35% aggregate probability indicates moderate confidence in a Germany victory, though significant disagreement exists between venues: Polymarket prices Germany at 70 cents (roughly 70% win probability) while Kalshi's limited activity suggests around 11%. Germany enters as the stronger team by historical rankings and recent form, which supports higher win odds. Côte d'Ivoire's chances are constrained by competitive disparity, though upsets occur in football. The wide cross-venue gap of 25 percentage points suggests either different trader bases assessing available information differently, or insufficient liquidity on one venue to establish a stable consensus price. Match context, team lineups, and recent performance data closer to game day would likely narrow disagreement and clarify the true probability.

Key factors:
- Germany's FIFA ranking and recent competitive record versus Côte d'Ivoire's comparative standing
- Current squad availability and injury status for both teams at time of match
- The specific competition format and stakes (tournament stage, group play, or friendly)
- Volume imbalance between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests liquidity on Kalshi may be too low to establish reliable pricing
- Match conditions and venue factors that could neutralize Germany's typical advantages

Contracts:
- Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany — 65¢ Polymarket $15 (weight 100%)
- Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw (Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire) — 21¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire — 15¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

Cite as: "65% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/germany-vs-cte-divoire
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Germany%20vs.%20C%C3%B4te%20d'Ivoire
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev