48% — Will the price of Gold be above 4300 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST Leader: 4,300 or above at 48% · Kalshi 48% · 13 contracts · $959 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-29 01:45:58 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 13 outcomes. Why this matters: Markets are pricing a 68% chance that gold closes 2026 above $4,300 per ounce, with significant uncertainty about higher price levels. This reflects traders' assessment that gold will hold recent gains through year-end, though the descending probability across higher thresholds ($4,600 at 60%, $4,800 at 53%) suggests meaningful downside risk. Gold prices are primarily influenced by US dollar strength, real interest rate expectations, and geopolitical risk appetite. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory and inflation data over the next seven months will be critical drivers—rate cuts would support higher gold prices, while rate hikes would pressure them lower. The December 31 close will ultimately depend on macroeconomic conditions and risk sentiment at that specific moment, with no single scheduled catalyst but rather a cumulative effect of ongoing economic data releases. Key factors: - Gold is currently trading near historical highs; maintaining $4,300+ requires either continued dollar weakness or persistent inflation concerns through December - The probability declines materially at higher price levels, indicating traders see $4,300-$4,600 as more likely than $4,700+, suggesting moderate upside expectations rather than bullish consensus - Real interest rates (measured by 10-year Treasury yields minus inflation expectations) have an inverse relationship to gold prices; any Fed rate increases before year-end would create downward pressure - Geopolitical tensions and safe-haven demand have supported recent gold strength, but normalization of risk sentiment could reduce investment demand - The contract's 7-month timeframe means Fed policy meetings and quarterly inflation/employment data releases will be the primary determinants of settlement direction Contracts: - Will the price of Gold be above 4300 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?: 4,300 or above — 48¢ Kalshi $84 (weight 9%) - Will the price of Gold be above 4400 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?: 4,400 or above — 42¢ Kalshi $24 (weight 2%) - Will the price of Gold be above 4500 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?: 4,500 or above — 35¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the price of Gold be above 4600 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?: 4,600 or above — 29¢ Kalshi $76 (weight 8%) - Will the price of Gold be above 4700 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?: 4,700 or above — 25¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 1%) - Will the price of Gold be above 4800 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?: 4,800 or above — 18¢ Kalshi $182 (weight 19%) - Will the price of Gold be above 4900 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?: 4,900 or above — 18¢ Kalshi $50 (weight 5%) - Will the price of Gold be above 5000 on December 31, 2026 at 05:00 PM EST?: 5,000 or above — 17¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 1%) - ... and 5 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-29T01:20:49.478Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "48% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/golddiry Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20price%20of%20Gold%20be%20above%204300%20on%20December%2031%2C%202026%20at%2005%3A00%20PM%20EST Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev