97% — Will the gold close price be above $4146.99 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT Leader: above $4253.99 at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 11 contracts · $4K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 06:12:06 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 11 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract asks whether gold will close above $4,146.99 on April 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT. The 83% probability reflects strong market conviction that gold will remain above this threshold, suggesting traders expect gold to maintain or gain value over the coming weeks. The current gold price level relative to this strike price and broader macroeconomic conditions—including inflation expectations, Federal Reserve policy signals, and currency movements—will determine whether this level holds. The resolution date of April 30, 2026 represents the key moment when uncertainty ends, though major economic data releases or Fed announcements in the weeks leading up to that date could significantly shift the probability if they materially change inflation or interest rate expectations. Key factors: - Gold is trading substantially above the $4,146.99 strike price, requiring a significant decline of roughly 10-15% or more to fail this contract - Related contracts show measurable probability mass for higher strike prices ($4,373.99, $4,580, $4,610, $5,013.99), indicating market view that gold may trend upward or sideways rather than downward - Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and inflation data releases between now and late April 2026 will be primary drivers—higher rates typically pressure gold, while inflation concerns support it - The May 29 contracts trading above this April 30 strike suggest traders see some risk of decline by end-April but recovery potential by late May, creating uncertainty bands - Current trading volume concentration and the leader contract's 2-point spread above the runner-up indicate consensus but not unanimous certainty among active traders Contracts: - Will the gold close price be above 4253.99 USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $4253.99 — 97¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 0%) - Will the gold close price be above 4413.99 USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $4413.99 — 96¢ Kalshi $525 (weight 15%) - Will the gold close price be above 4333.99 USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $4333.99 — 96¢ Kalshi $150 (weight 4%) - Will the gold close price be above 4373.99 USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $4373.99 — 96¢ Kalshi $119 (weight 3%) - Will the gold close price be above 4453.99 USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $4453.99 — 92¢ Kalshi $308 (weight 9%) - Will the gold close price be above 4293.99 USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $4293.99 — 88¢ Kalshi $44 (weight 1%) - Will the gold close price be above 4213.99 USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $4213.99 — 84¢ Kalshi $60 (weight 2%) - Will the gold close price be above 4173.99 USD/t.oz on May 29, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $4173.99 — 84¢ Kalshi $55 (weight 2%) - ... and 3 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-30T07:20:12.459Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/goldmon Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20gold%20close%20price%20be%20above%20%244146.99%20on%20Apr%2030%2C%202026%20at%205pm%20EDT Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev