95% — Will the gold close price be above 5211.99  USD/t.oz on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT
Leader: above $4060.99 at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 19 contracts · $6K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 05:22:55 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 19 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will the gold close price be above 4060.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $4060.99 — 95¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- Will the gold close price be above 4100.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $4100.99 — 92¢ Kalshi $653 (weight 11%)
- Will the gold close price be above 4080.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $4080.99 — 92¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 2%)
- Will the gold close price be above 4120.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $4120.99 — 90¢ Kalshi $411 (weight 7%)
- Will the gold close price be above 4140.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $4140.99 — 87¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 18%)
- Will the gold close price be above 4160.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $4160.99 — 83¢ Kalshi $80 (weight 1%)
- Will the gold close price be above 4180.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $4180.99 — 79¢ Kalshi $48 (weight 1%)
- Will the gold close price be above 4200.99 USD/t.oz on June 12, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $4200.99 — 75¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 11 more

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:07.848Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/goldw
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20gold%20close%20price%20be%20above%205211.99%20%20USD%2Ft.oz%20on%20Apr%2024%2C%202026%20at%205pm%20EDT
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev