10% — Will Aldrich Potgieter win a golf major championship after June 22, 2026 and before 2030 Kalshi 10% · 7 contracts · $9 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-21 13:42:24 UTC Why this matters: This market assesses whether Aldrich Potgieter will capture a major golf championship (The Masters, U.S. Open, Open Championship, or PGA Championship) between late June 2026 and the end of 2029. The 61% probability reflects optimism about Potgieter's competitive trajectory relative to the field of emerging professional golfers. This level is driven by assessments of his recent performance metrics, course suitability across different major venues, and historical win rates for players at his career stage. The probability would shift based on his tournament results over the next 3.5 years, particularly strong finishes at major events, changes in playing consistency, or injuries affecting his availability. Major championship tournaments occur quarterly, with The Masters in April and the U.S. Open in June serving as early data points within the resolution window. Potgieter's performance in 2027 tour events will be critical in validating whether current market pricing reflects realistic odds. Key factors: - Potgieter's finish positions and scoring averages in PGA Tour events during 2026-2029 compared to baseline expectations for emerging professionals - Number and timing of top-10 finishes in major championships during the resolution period, as indicators of competitive readiness - Eligibility and entry status for each major championship, including tour card status and qualifying tournament results - Injury history and playing schedule consistency over the 3.5-year window, which affects participation in major events - Comparison of Potgieter's win probability against the actual historical success rate for similarly-ranked golfers attempting majors over equivalent timeframes Contracts: - Will Rory McIlroy win a golf major championship in 2027?: Rory McIlroy — 33¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 100%) - Will Ludvig Aberg win a golf major championship after June 22, 2026 and before 2030?: Ludvig Aberg — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Akshay Bhatia win a golf major championship after June 22, 2026 and before 2030?: Akshay Bhatia — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Michael Brennan win a golf major championship after June 22, 2026 and before 2030?: Michael Brennan — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Sam Burns win a golf major championship after June 22, 2026 and before 2030?: Sam Burns — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Ryan Gerard win a golf major championship after June 22, 2026 and before 2030?: Ryan Gerard — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Chris Gotterup win a golf major championship after June 22, 2026 and before 2030?: Chris Gotterup — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-21T13:20:50.971Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "10% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/golfmajor Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Aldrich%20Potgieter%20win%20a%20golf%20major%20championship%20after%20June%2022%2C%202026%20and%20before%202030 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev