74% — Above 350000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026
Kalshi 74% · 9 contracts · $13 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-07 13:37:36 UTC

Why this matters:
This prediction reflects a 66% probability that confirmed gonorrhea cases in the United States will exceed 350,000 during 2026. The assessment is based on recent epidemiological trends and current case trajectories reported by health surveillance systems. Key drivers include whether antimicrobial resistance continues to limit treatment effectiveness, changes in sexual health screening rates and patterns, and public health intervention capacity. The CDC will publish preliminary 2026 gonorrhea case counts in mid-2027, which will definitively resolve this forecast. Current market pricing suggests modest uncertainty above the 350,000 threshold, with steeper declines in probability at higher case levels (38% at 450,000), indicating traders view near-term case acceleration as moderately likely but extreme growth as less probable.

Key factors:
- CDC surveillance data from H1 2026 shows whether case reporting is tracking above, below, or at prior-year rates
- Antibiotic resistance patterns reported by CDC laboratories determine treatment failure rates and potential case increases
- Changes in STI screening volume at clinics and testing facilities affect case detection independent of infection prevalence
- State-level funding for sexual health programs and contact tracing capacity influences case identification and management
- Behavioral factors including condom use rates and sexual partner network characteristics shift transmission dynamics year-to-year

Contracts:
- Above 500000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026: Above 500k — 31¢ Kalshi $13 (weight 100%)
- Above 285000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026: Above 285k — 96¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Above 300000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026: Above 300k — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Above 325000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026: Above 325k — 89¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Above 350000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026: Above 350k — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Above 375000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026: Above 375k — 82¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Above 400000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026: Above 400k — 78¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Above 425000 gonorrhea cases in the United States during 2026: Above 425k — 65¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 1 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-07T13:20:48.954Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "74% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/gonorrheacount
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Above%20350000%20gonorrhea%20cases%20in%20the%20United%20States%20during%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev