5% — Will Google (GOOGL) close above ___ end of April?: $340
Kalshi 5% · 1 contracts · $451 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:51:12 UTC

Why this matters:
This market asks whether Google's stock will close above $340 by the end of April 2026. The current 61% probability reflects substantial disagreement between venues: Kalshi traders price it at 43% while Polymarket traders price it at 89%, a 46-point gap suggesting uncertainty about current stock levels or different risk assessments. With only one day remaining in April, the outcome depends almost entirely on GOOGL's actual closing price on April 30. The main driver is whether the stock is currently trading near, above, or significantly below the $340 threshold. Resolution occurs at market close on April 30, 2026. The cross-venue divergence suggests either one group has superior information about Google's current trading price, or different trader bases assign different probabilities to GOOGL reaching this level in the final trading session of the month.

Key factors:
- Google (GOOGL) closing price on April 30, 2026 relative to the $340 strike level
- Current GOOGL trading price as of April 29, 2026 and distance to target
- Intraday volatility and typical daily moves for GOOGL during this period
- 46-percentage-point spread between Kalshi (43%) and Polymarket (89%) indicating significant information asymmetry across venues
- One trading day remains for resolution, limiting time for fundamental catalyst impact

Contracts:
- Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Google — 5¢ Kalshi $451 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T07:20:09.112Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "5% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/google-googl-close-above-april
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Google%20(GOOGL)%20close%20above%20___%20end%20of%20April%3F%3A%20%24340
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev