11% — Will Stranger Things be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Tv Shows list Kalshi 11% · 17 contracts · $470 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-10 09:06:36 UTC Why this matters: This market tracks whether Stranger Things will rank as the most-searched TV show globally according to Google's annual Year in Search 2026 list, currently priced at 14% probability. The relatively low probability reflects that Stranger Things faces substantial competition from other major television properties and cultural phenomena. Key drivers include whether the show releases new content in 2026, the extent of ongoing fan engagement, and how search volume compares to competing shows during the year. The market will resolve in December 2026 when Google publishes its official Year in Search rankings, at which point the actual ranking data becomes public and verifiable. Until then, uncertainty stems from unpredictability of global search trends, competing shows' release schedules, and the cumulative search behavior of billions of users worldwide. Key factors: - Stranger Things' official release schedule in 2026 and content volume—new season availability directly impacts search volume - Competing TV shows' release timing and cultural moments in 2026 that could generate larger search volumes - Historical search patterns showing whether Stranger Things maintains consistent year-over-year interest or has declined since peak seasons - Google's Year in Search 2026 publication in December as the definitive resolution source with publicly available rankings - Broader entertainment landscape shifts and potential competing entertainment phenomena that capture global search attention Contracts: - Will His & Hers be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Tv Shows list?: His & Hers — 5¢ Kalshi $250 (weight 53%) - Will The Pitt be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Tv Shows list?: The Pitt — 11¢ Kalshi $197 (weight 42%) - Will The Odyssey be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Movies list?: The Odyssey — 40¢ Kalshi $14 (weight 3%) - Will Tom Holland be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Actors list?: Tom Holland — 13¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 1%) - Will Erling Haaland be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Athletes list?: Erling Haaland — 39¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 1%) - Will Jacob Elordi be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Actors list?: Jacob Elordi — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Timothée Chalamet be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Actors list?: Timothée Chalamet — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Will Smith be the #1 rank on Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Actors list?: Will Smith — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 9 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-10T07:20:52.858Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "11% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/googlesearch Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Stranger%20Things%20be%20the%20%231%20rank%20on%20Google%E2%80%99s%20Year%20in%20Search%202026%20Global%20-%20Tv%20Shows%20list Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev