25% — Who will win the governorship in Alaska
Leader: Tom Begich at 25% · Kalshi 25% · 6 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 09:43:06 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The current 36% probability indicates that the leading candidate for Alaska's governorship is favored but faces meaningful competition, with a roughly 2-to-1 advantage over the next closest contender at 24%. Alaska's 2026 gubernatorial race remains fluid because the state has a history of competitive elections and split-ticket voting patterns. The primary outcome will likely depend on turnout dynamics, the final composition of candidates after any primary contests, and economic conditions in the state heading into the general election. Major campaign developments, polling shifts, or unexpected candidate exits could substantially move these probabilities. The resolution of this market will depend entirely on the November 2026 general election results.

Key factors:
- The leading candidate currently prices at 36% with the second-place option at 24%, indicating a moderately concentrated but non-dominant position with 40% probability assigned to all other outcomes combined
- Alaska's relatively small population and history of swing behavior means polling samples may be limited, introducing higher variance in probability estimates compared to larger states
- The market reflects early-stage pricing with more than 17 months until the November 2026 general election, suggesting substantial room for candidate emergence, withdrawal, or campaign momentum shifts
- Primary election results and candidate consolidation patterns will be critical focal points, as they typically reshape general election dynamics in multi-candidate races
- Turnout and demographic changes in Alaska could disproportionately affect outcomes given the state's smaller electoral base and historical sensitivity to participation rates

Contracts:
- Who will win the governorship in Alaska?: Tom Begich — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Who will win the governorship in Alaska?: Bernadette Wilson — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Who will win the governorship in Alaska?: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Who will win the governorship in Alaska?: Bill Walker — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Who will win the governorship in Alaska?: Click Bishop — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- Who will win the governorship in Alaska?: Treg Taylor — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:51.182Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "25% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/govak
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20the%20governorship%20in%20Alaska
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev