34% — Who will win the governorship in Alaska
Leader: Bernadette Wilson at 34% · Kalshi 34% · 4 contracts · $108 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-25 13:49:56 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 30% probability reflects market expectations that Bernadette Wilson will win Alaska's gubernatorial election. The estimate is driven by assessments of candidate name recognition, fundraising capacity, and recent polling data compared to competitors like Tom Begich at 25% and Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins at 13%. The primary factors pushing this probability up or down would be campaign momentum shifts, debate performance, fundraising reports, and movement in public opinion polls closer to election day. The major catalyst resolving uncertainty will be the November 2026 general election results. Current trading volume is minimal for most contracts, suggesting limited market participation and potential price volatility as the election approaches and more participants engage with these markets.

Key factors:
- Bernadette Wilson currently leads the contract pricing at 30 cents, while Tom Begich trails at 25 cents—a 5-point spread reflecting modest differentiation rather than consensus
- Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins at 13 cents has the highest 24-hour trading volume ($140), indicating active price discovery for a third-place candidate
- Most contracts show zero 24-hour volume, suggesting thin liquidity and potential for sharp price movements if new information emerges
- The six-contract structure distributes probabilities across multiple candidates, with the top three accounting for approximately 68% of implied likelihood
- Alaska's gubernatorial election occurs in November 2026, roughly three months away, providing multiple opportunities for campaign developments to shift market expectations

Contracts:
- Who will win the governorship in Alaska?: Bernadette Wilson — 34¢ Kalshi $82 (weight 76%)
- Who will win the governorship in Alaska?: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins — 28¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Who will win the governorship in Alaska?: Tom Begich — 18¢ Kalshi $25 (weight 23%)
- Who will win the governorship in Alaska?: Dave Bronson — 10¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 1%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-25T13:20:51.732Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "34% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/govak
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20the%20governorship%20in%20Alaska
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev