95% — Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor Leader: Tom Begich at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 8 contracts · $618 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-11 05:20:34 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes. Why this matters: Markets indicate Tom Begich has an 89% probability of winning Alaska's top-four primary for Governor, meaning traders assess he is significantly more likely than competitors to advance from this ranked-choice primary system. The probability reflects Begich's apparent fundraising advantages, polling position, and name recognition relative to competitors like Treg Taylor (27%), Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (68%), and others. Trading volume on Begich contracts remains minimal, suggesting limited recent price discovery, while Taylor contracts show higher activity at $3,079 in 24-hour volume, potentially indicating uncertainty about second-tier positioning. The August 2026 Alaska primary election itself will definitively resolve this market. Key factors include candidate spending patterns, late campaign announcements or endorsements, demographic turnout in Alaska's four regions, and whether independent or third-party candidates affect the ranked-choice calculus. Key factors: - Tom Begich's contract trades at 92 cents versus Taylor at 27 cents and Kreiss-Tomkins at 68 cents, showing substantial gap between front-runner and competitors - Taylor contracts have generated $3,079 in 24-hour trading volume compared to minimal volume on Begich, suggesting traders more actively reassessing the second-place position - Ranked-choice primary mechanics mean candidates advancing depends on distribution of second and third-choice votes across Alaska's four judicial districts - Recent fundraising reports and campaign cash on hand at filing deadlines would indicate resource advantages affecting ground organization and advertising - August 2026 primary election date is the binding resolution event for all contracts Contracts: - Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?: Tom Begich — 95¢ Kalshi $142 (weight 23%) - Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?: Bernadette Wilson — 89¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins — 77¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?: Dave Bronson — 50¢ Kalshi $17 (weight 3%) - Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?: Treg Taylor — 33¢ Kalshi $440 (weight 71%) - Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?: Click Bishop — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?: Bill Walker — 20¢ Kalshi $19 (weight 3%) - Who will win Alaska's top-four primary for Governor?: Adam Crum — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-11T04:20:51.077Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/govakprimary Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20Alaska's%20top-four%20primary%20for%20Governor Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev