18% — Will there be a government shutdown?
Kalshi 14% · Polymarket 50% · 16 contracts · $6K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:51:04 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 36pp (Polymarket higher)

Why this matters:
Prediction markets currently indicate a 62% chance of exactly two distinct federal government shutdowns occurring in 2026. Smaller contingencies suggest an 19% probability for three shutdowns and an 8% probability for four. These market-implied probabilities reflect significant uncertainty regarding legislative stability for the remainder of the year.

Key factors:
- 62% chance of two shutdowns
- 19% chance of three shutdowns
- 8% chance of four shutdowns
- market volatility

Contracts:
- Will U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP for FY2026 be below 5%?: Below 5% — 3¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 71%)
- Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 13¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 28%)
- Will there be more than 100000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?: More than 100,000 — 37¢ Kalshi $44 (weight 1%)
- Will government spending decrease by 250 before 2028?: At least 250 billion — 9¢ Kalshi $13 (weight 0%)
- Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?: Shutdown & Republican Party — 19¢ Polymarket $3 (weight 0%)
- Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?: Shutdown & Democratic Party — 81¢ Polymarket $1 (weight 0%)
- Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 2 in 2026?: 2 — 59¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 3 in 2026?: 3 — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 8 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T07:20:06.977Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "18% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/government-shutdown
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20there%20be%20a%20government%20shutdown%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev