14% — Will there be a government shutdown?
Kalshi 14% · 12 contracts · $119K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 02:00:02 UTC

Why this matters:
Prediction markets currently indicate a 48% chance that the U.S. government will be in a state of shutdown on October 1, 2026. Looking at the broader fiscal outlook for the year, markets assign a 60% probability that there will be exactly two distinct government shutdowns in 2026, while the likelihood of reaching three or more shutdowns is lower at 28%.

Key factors:
- 48% shutdown risk Oct 1
- 60% chance of exactly two 2026 shutdowns
- Fiscal policy volatility
- Market-implied federal disruption

Contracts:
- Will legislation that requires proof of U.S. citizenship as a condition of registering to vote in federal elections become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 10¢ Kalshi $118K (weight 99%)
- Will government spending decrease by 2000 before 2026?: At least 2 trillion — 3¢ Kalshi $801 (weight 1%)
- Will government spending decrease by 250 before 2026?: At least 250 billion — 6¢ Kalshi $151 (weight 0%)
- Will government spending decrease by 500 before 2026?: At least 500 billion — 5¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 2 in 2026?: 2 — 57¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 3 in 2026?: 3 — 23¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 4 in 2026?: 4 — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 5 in 2026?: 5 — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 4 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-24T01:20:51.339Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "14% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/government-shutdown
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20there%20be%20a%20government%20shutdown%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev