50% — Will Brad Raffensperger be the Republican nominee for Governor in Georgia
Kalshi 50% · 2 contracts · $595K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 00:20:16 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability indicates roughly a one-in-three chance that Brad Raffensperger will become the Republican nominee for Georgia Governor. The 32% level reflects uncertainty about whether the current Secretary of State—who gained prominence for defending Georgia's 2020 election results—can overcome potential primary opposition from candidates with different standing in the party. Primary contests typically hinge on candidate fundraising, endorsements from sitting officials and major party figures, and turnout among different voter segments. The Georgia Republican gubernatorial primary, currently scheduled for spring 2026, will provide the decisive test of support through actual voting patterns and delegate allocation. Before then, candidate announcement timing, fundraising disclosures, and any significant endorsements from Governor Brian Kemp or other major figures will shape expectations about the nomination race.

Key factors:
- No major Republican challenger has yet announced a primary campaign against Raffensperger as of May 2026, affecting perceived competitive intensity
- Raffensperger's 2020 election defense created both a loyal base and significant opposition within Trump-aligned Republican factions
- Georgia's Republican primary voting patterns in recent cycles demonstrate the influence of Trump endorsements and organized grassroots mobilization on nomination outcomes
- Fundraising totals and cash-on-hand reported in FEC filings will indicate which candidates have built viable campaign infrastructure
- Formal candidate declarations and primary filing deadlines will clarify the actual field size and competitive dynamics Raffensperger faces

Contracts:
- Will Burt Jones be the Republican nominee for Governor in Georgia?: Burt Jones — 3¢ Kalshi $309K (weight 52%)
- Will Rick Jackson be the Republican nominee for Governor in Georgia?: Rick Jackson — 96¢ Kalshi $286K (weight 48%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-18T01:20:23.370Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "50% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/govganomr
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Brad%20Raffensperger%20be%20the%20Republican%20nominee%20for%20Governor%20in%20Georgia
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev