40% — Will Vicki Schmidt be the Republican nominee for Governor in Kansas
Kalshi 40% · 2 contracts · $14 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:33 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the likelihood that Vicki Schmidt wins the Republican primary for Kansas governor. At 43%, the market indicates she is a significant contender but faces meaningful competition. Schmidt, a former state legislator and current State Board of Education member, brings relevant political experience, though the Kansas Republican primary remains competitive. The current probability reflects uncertainty about primary voter preferences and whether other candidates might generate stronger momentum. The main drivers would be campaign fundraising levels, endorsements from state party establishment figures, and polling data closer to the primary election date. The Republican primary election in Kansas will ultimately resolve this contract, likely occurring in August 2026, making candidate activity and campaign developments over the coming months critical to watch.

Key factors:
- Vicki Schmidt's prior legislative service and current State Board of Education position represent established political credentials within Kansas Republican circles
- Primary election timing (August 2026) means candidate field composition, endorsements, and fundraising through mid-2026 will significantly influence outcomes
- Competing Republican candidates' campaign viability, name recognition, and resource levels directly impact Schmidt's path to the nomination
- Turnout patterns and geographic voting preferences in Kansas Republican primaries have historically varied, affecting how establishment candidates perform relative to insurgent challengers
- No major scandal or campaign-altering event appears priced into the 43% probability, suggesting modest confidence in Schmidt's nomination chances

Contracts:
- Will Ty Masterson be the Republican nominee for Governor in Kansas?: Ty Masterson — 74¢ Kalshi $12 (weight 86%)
- Will Philip Sarnecki be the Republican nominee for Governor in Kansas?: Philip Sarnecki — 6¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 14%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:49.532Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "40% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/govksnomr
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Vicki%20Schmidt%20be%20the%20Republican%20nominee%20for%20Governor%20in%20Kansas
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev