83% — Will Garrett Mason be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine
Kalshi 83% · 1 contracts · $373 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-21 10:48:41 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Garrett Mason will win the Republican primary nomination for Maine's gubernatorial race. At 37%, the market suggests Mason is a competitive but not dominant candidate in what appears to be an open or contested primary field. The probability level likely reflects factors such as Mason's current position within Maine Republican circles, his fundraising capacity relative to other candidates, and recent polling or endorsement patterns. The main catalysts affecting this probability would be candidate entry or withdrawal announcements, major primary campaign events, and any public polling data specific to the Maine Republican gubernatorial primary. The nomination will ultimately be determined at Maine's Republican state convention or through the primary election process scheduled for 2026.

Key factors:
- Mason's current name recognition and organizational support within Maine Republican Party structures
- Competition from other potential Republican candidates and their respective funding or endorsement levels
- Changes in candidate field composition (entries, withdrawals, or consolidation of support)
- Primary election rules and delegate allocation mechanisms specific to Maine Republican processes
- Polling data and grassroots activity metrics from Maine-focused surveys or campaign metrics

Contracts:
- Will Robert Charles be the Republican nominee for Governor in Maine?: Robert Charles — 83¢ Kalshi $373 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-20T13:20:20.457Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "83% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/govmenomr
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Garrett%20Mason%20be%20the%20Republican%20nominee%20for%20Governor%20in%20Maine
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev