42% — Will Aaron Guckian be the Republican nominee for Governor in Rhode Island
Kalshi 42% · 2 contracts · $85 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 06:43:49 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the current market assessment that Aaron Guckian will win the Republican nomination for Rhode Island Governor. At 29%, the market suggests Guckian is a meaningful contender but faces significant competition. The 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial race will determine the Republican nominee through either a primary election or convention process. Key factors driving this probability include Guckian's existing political profile and name recognition within Rhode Island's Republican Party, the strength and number of competing candidates in the field, and organizational capacity to mobilize primary voters. The Republican primary date and any early endorsements from state party leadership or national figures would meaningfully shift this assessment. Market participants are weighing whether Guckian can consolidate anti-incumbent sentiment or maintain establishment support as other candidates enter or intensify their campaigns.

Key factors:
- Date of Rhode Island Republican primary election and rules governing delegate allocation or direct voting
- Number of competing Republican candidates and their respective funding, endorsement backing, and campaign infrastructure
- Guckian's current voter identification metrics and polling performance among likely Republican primary voters
- Alignment with or divergence from dominant Republican Party establishment preferences in the state
- Level of national Republican attention or endorsements for Guckian versus competing candidates

Contracts:
- Will Elaine Pelino be the Republican nominee for Governor in Rhode Island?: Elaine Pelino — 22¢ Kalshi $85 (weight 100%)
- Will Aaron Guckian be the Republican nominee for Governor in Rhode Island?: Aaron Guckian — 62¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:51.259Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "42% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/govrinomr
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Aaron%20Guckian%20be%20the%20Republican%20nominee%20for%20Governor%20in%20Rhode%20Island
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev