50% — Will Nancy Mace be the Republican nominee for Governor in South Carolina
Kalshi 50% · 2 contracts · $46K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-13 13:03:00 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the likelihood that Nancy Mace secures the Republican nomination for South Carolina's governorship. The 36% probability reflects a competitive race where Mace is a significant contender but faces uncertainty about her ultimate viability as the party's nominee. Her path depends on factors including primary election dynamics, fundraising success, and consolidation of support among Republican voters. The nomination will be resolved through South Carolina's primary process, with results expected in 2026. Key considerations include whether other credible Republican candidates enter the race, how effectively Mace mobilizes conservative voters, and whether any major political developments shift party dynamics before the nomination is finalized.

Key factors:
- South Carolina Republican primary voting patterns and the number of competing candidates in the race
- Mace's fundraising totals and campaign organization capacity compared to other potential nominees
- Recent polling data from South Carolina Republicans on candidate preferences and name recognition
- Whether establishment or insurgent Republican factions coalesce around specific candidates
- Any major endorsements or primary election results from other states that might influence South Carolina GOP dynamics

Contracts:
- Will Alan Wilson be the Republican nominee for Governor in South Carolina?: Alan Wilson — 39¢ Kalshi $30K (weight 66%)
- Will Pamela Evette be the Republican nominee for Governor in South Carolina?: Pamela Evette — 60¢ Kalshi $16K (weight 34%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-13T12:20:48.447Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "50% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/govscnomr
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Nancy%20Mace%20be%20the%20Republican%20nominee%20for%20Governor%20in%20South%20Carolina
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev