95% — Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be above 5 2026 midterms Leader: At least 1 at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 13 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-14 11:19:21 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 13 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract measures whether more than five U.S. states will have split outcomes in 2026—where the gubernatorial winner and Senate winner belong to different political parties. Currently priced at 21%, suggesting markets expect this to be relatively uncommon, with outcomes of exactly 3 or 4 states appearing most likely. The baseline likelihood depends on how many competitive races occur in each category and the strength of ticket-splitting behavior in those states. Historically, split outcomes reflect local political dynamics that diverge from national trends. The resolution hinges on final election results in November 2026, where both gubernatorial and Senate races will be determined simultaneously across multiple states. Party performance variations, candidate quality, and voter preferences in specific races will determine whether split outcomes exceed five states. Key factors: - Number of states holding concurrent gubernatorial and Senate elections in 2026 and how many are genuinely competitive in both races - Historical rate of ticket-splitting in overlapping gubernatorial-Senate races, typically ranging from 10-25% of contested states - Partisan lean divergence between Senate-eligible voters and gubernatorial-eligible voters in swing states - Quality and incumbent status of specific 2026 gubernatorial and Senate candidates in states with both races - Whether national political environment favors unified ticket voting or encourages split outcomes based on local factors Contracts: - Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 1 2026 midterms?: At least 1 — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 2 2026 midterms?: At least 2 — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 3 2026 midterms?: At least 3 — 81¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 4 2026 midterms?: At least 4 — 57¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be at least 5 2026 midterms?: At least 5 — 37¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be exactly 3 2026 midterms?: 3 — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be exactly 5 2026 midterms?: 5 — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - Will the number of states in which the winner of the 2026 gubernatorial general election and the winner of a 2026 U.S. Senate general election (including special elections) are nominees of different political parties be exactly 4 2026 midterms?: 4 — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 8%) - ... and 5 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-14T10:20:50.607Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/govsendiff Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20number%20of%20states%20in%20which%20the%20winner%20of%20the%202026%20gubernatorial%20general%20election%20and%20the%20winner%20of%20a%202026%20U.S.%20Senate%20general%20election%20(including%20special%20elections)%20are%20nominees%20of%20different%20political%20parties%20be%20above%205%202026%20midterms Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev