95% — Will legislation that, upon becoming law, completes, extends, or restores appropriations coverage across all 12 regular appropriations acts, whether temporarily or for the full fiscal year become law before Oct 1, 2026 Leader: Before Dec 1, 2026 at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 7 contracts · $62 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-10 06:03:12 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes. Why this matters: Markets are pricing an 86% probability that comprehensive appropriations legislation covering all 12 regular appropriations acts becomes law by October 1, 2026. This reflects historical patterns where Congress typically passes spending bills before fiscal year-end deadlines, though timing remains uncertain. The probability declines sharply for earlier dates—only 49% for passage by September 26—suggesting traders expect last-minute legislative activity rather than early agreement. The primary driver is the September 30 fiscal year deadline, which creates urgency for passage. Downward pressure would come from legislative gridlock, partisan disputes over spending levels, or procedural delays. The key uncertainty is whether Congress will pass a continuing resolution (temporary measure) or seek comprehensive appropriations, with the latter being more difficult to negotiate. Key factors: - September 30, 2026 fiscal year deadline creates hard deadline for appropriations action; historically Congress passes spending legislation near this date - Contract pricing shows sharp probability decline from 86% (Oct 1) to 49% (Sep 26), indicating traders expect resolution in final days rather than early passage - Continuing resolutions (temporary extensions) satisfy the resolution criteria, which is more achievable than full appropriations bills and would lower legislative hurdles - Historical baseline: Congress has passed all 12 appropriations acts on time in only 4 of the past 30+ years, making last-minute passage or CRs the norm - Partisan control of Congress and disagreements over specific funding allocations could force shorter-term continuing resolutions rather than comprehensive legislation Contracts: - Will legislation that, upon becoming law, completes, extends, or restores appropriations coverage across all 12 regular appropriations acts, whether temporarily or for the full fiscal year become law before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026 — 95¢ Kalshi $14 (weight 23%) - Will legislation that, upon becoming law, completes, extends, or restores appropriations coverage across all 12 regular appropriations acts, whether temporarily or for the full fiscal year become law before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026 — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will legislation that, upon becoming law, completes, extends, or restores appropriations coverage across all 12 regular appropriations acts, whether temporarily or for the full fiscal year become law before Oct 16, 2026?: Before Oct 16, 2026 — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will legislation that, upon becoming law, completes, extends, or restores appropriations coverage across all 12 regular appropriations acts, whether temporarily or for the full fiscal year become law before Oct 9, 2026?: Before Oct 9, 2026 — 83¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will legislation that, upon becoming law, completes, extends, or restores appropriations coverage across all 12 regular appropriations acts, whether temporarily or for the full fiscal year become law before Oct 2, 2026?: Before Oct 2, 2026 — 83¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will legislation that, upon becoming law, completes, extends, or restores appropriations coverage across all 12 regular appropriations acts, whether temporarily or for the full fiscal year become law before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 81¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will legislation that, upon becoming law, completes, extends, or restores appropriations coverage across all 12 regular appropriations acts, whether temporarily or for the full fiscal year become law before Sep 26, 2026?: Before Sep 26, 2026 — 46¢ Kalshi $48 (weight 77%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-10T05:20:51.224Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/govtfullfund-26aug Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20legislation%20that%2C%20upon%20becoming%20law%2C%20completes%2C%20extends%2C%20or%20restores%20appropriations%20coverage%20across%20all%2012%20regular%20appropriations%20acts%2C%20whether%20temporarily%20or%20for%20the%20full%20fiscal%20year%20become%20law%20before%20Oct%201%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev