13% — Will the US government be shut down for at least 80 days between Feb 7, 2026 and Dec 31, 2026 Kalshi 13% · 12 contracts · $674 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-24 03:36:07 UTC Why this matters: This contract asks whether the federal government will experience a shutdown lasting at least 80 cumulative days between mid-February and year-end 2026. At 16%, the market suggests this is unlikely but not negligible. The relatively low probability reflects that while budget disputes occur regularly, sustained shutdowns of this magnitude are rare in recent US history. The probability hinges on two competing dynamics: political gridlock over appropriations bills and spending authority, which would increase shutdown risk, versus political incentives to avoid the economic and public-opinion costs of prolonged shutdowns, which would decrease it. The key catalyst will be the September-October 2026 budget deadline, when Congress must pass funding legislation or trigger another shutdown. Earlier deadlines in the summer months will provide early signals about the political environment and likelihood of a protracted funding dispute by year-end. Key factors: - Historical baseline: only two shutdowns since 2013 exceeded 20 days; an 80-day aggregate would require either one very long shutdown or multiple extended closures - Political composition matters: divided government and narrow majorities typically increase shutdown frequency; current margins will shape negotiating leverage through fall 2026 - September 2026 continuing resolution expires: this is the most probable flashpoint for extended shutdown; market typically reprices sharply after budget deadlines pass - Public approval impacts: prolonged shutdowns historically shift political costs toward the party perceived as obstinate; this incentivizes compromise before reaching 80 days - Treasury resources: the government's ability to prioritize payments and continue certain operations partially mitigates the practical impact of extended appropriations gaps Contracts: - Will any part of the United States federal government take a stake of above 0% in any legal vehicle that owns, directly or indirectly, OpenAI’s for-profit operating entity?: OpenAI — 23¢ Kalshi $658 (weight 98%) - Will Matthew Stafford lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Matthew Stafford — 9¢ Kalshi $16 (weight 2%) - Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 2 in 2026?: 2 — 57¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 3 in 2026?: 3 — 23¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 4 in 2026?: 4 — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the number of distinct government shutdowns (as defined in the GOVTSHUTLENGTH contract, with shutdown status checked at 10:00 AM ET each day) be exactly 5 in 2026?: 5 — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Patrick Mahomes lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Patrick Mahomes — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will there be more than 150000 government employees cut before Jan 2027?: More than 150,000 — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 4 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-24T03:20:50.938Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/govtshutlength Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20US%20government%20be%20shut%20down%20for%20at%20least%2080%20days%20between%20Feb%207%2C%202026%20and%20Dec%2031%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev