48% — Will Aly Richards be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont
Kalshi 48% · 2 contracts · $645 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 06:46:26 UTC

Why this matters:
This 26% probability indicates that markets currently assess there is roughly a one-in-four chance that Aly Richards will win the Democratic primary for Vermont's governorship. The outcome depends heavily on Richards' name recognition and fundraising performance relative to other Democratic candidates, as well as incumbent party dynamics and whether any stronger establishment-backed challengers enter the race. The primary election itself will provide the definitive resolution, though candidate announcements and early polling in the coming months will clarify the competitive landscape. Market pricing suggests skepticism about Richards' path to the nomination, implying traders expect other candidates to be better-positioned or more viable within the Democratic primary electorate.

Key factors:
- Whether Aly Richards announces a formal campaign and demonstrates measurable fundraising by Q3 2026
- The number and profile of other Democratic candidates who enter the primary race
- Early polling data from Vermont Democratic voters regarding candidate preferences and name recognition
- Richards' performance in candidate forums, debates, or public appearances ahead of the primary
- Endorsements from major Vermont Democratic figures and establishment organizations

Contracts:
- Will Amanda Janoo be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?: Amanda Janoo — 26¢ Kalshi $641 (weight 99%)
- Will Aly Richards be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Vermont?: Aly Richards — 70¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 1%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.811Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "48% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/govvtnomd
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Aly%20Richards%20be%20the%20Democratic%20nominee%20for%20Governor%20in%20Vermont
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev