47% — Will Brent Bien be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wyoming
Kalshi 47% · 2 contracts · $1K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 00:20:17 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the likelihood that Brent Bien wins the Republican primary for Wyoming Governor. At 30%, the market suggests he has a meaningful but not favored chance compared to Megan Degenfelder, who trades at 78%. The current assessment likely reflects Bien's standing in state Republican circles, any recent polling data, fundraising levels, and perceived viability among Wyoming voters. Factors that could shift this probability include changes in candidate endorsements from state party leadership, primary election results from similar contests, shifts in campaign funding, or new public statements affecting candidate positioning. The Republican primary election itself will ultimately resolve this market, with the exact date depending on Wyoming's election calendar. Until then, movement in this probability depends on indicators of candidate strength within the party base and electability perceptions among Republican primary voters.

Key factors:
- Degenfelder's 78¢ price suggests clear market preference, leaving Bien at meaningful but secondary positioning
- Volume on Bien's contract ($483 in 24h) is lower than Degenfelder's ($1085), potentially indicating less certainty or interest from traders
- Fundraising reports, endorsement announcements from Wyoming Republican leadership, and any public polling would directly impact the probability
- Primary election results from early candidate events or straw polls could signal candidate momentum and shift market expectations
- The date of Wyoming's Republican primary election is the scheduled event that will fully resolve this contract

Contracts:
- Will Eric Barlow be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wyoming?: Eric Barlow — 23¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 97%)
- Will Megan Degenfelder be the Republican nominee for Governor in Wyoming?: Megan Degenfelder — 70¢ Kalshi $40 (weight 3%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-28T23:20:48.947Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "47% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/govwynomr
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Brent%20Bien%20be%20the%20Republican%20nominee%20for%20Governor%20in%20Wyoming
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev