45% — When will GPT-5 be released?
Kalshi 32% · Polymarket 72% · 9 contracts · $6K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 06:12:05 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 40pp (Polymarket higher)

Contracts:
- GPT-5.6 released by...?: June 30 — 85¢ Polymarket $3K (weight 52%)
- GPT-5.6 released by...?: July 31 — 97¢ Polymarket $3K (weight 42%)
- Winds of Winter release date announced?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 11¢ Kalshi $337 (weight 5%)
- Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by...?: December 31, 2026 — 35¢ Polymarket $30 (weight 0%)
- Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026 — 37¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 0%)
- Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026 — 66¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Jul 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 2026 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026 — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 1 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:11.679Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "45% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/gpt-5-release
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=When%20will%20GPT-5%20be%20released%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev