31% — Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Sep 25, 2026 Leader: Before Nov 13, 2026 at 31% · Kalshi 31% · 8 contracts · $78 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-20 22:45:33 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes. Why this matters: Markets currently assign a 29% probability that OpenAI will release Astra 6.1 before November 6, 2026. The contract structure reveals traders expect the release more likely in early November than in the next few weeks—only 6% odds for an October 9 release versus 29% for November 6. This gap suggests market participants believe OpenAI will take additional time before deploying this version, though significant uncertainty remains. The key driver is OpenAI's historical release cadence and whether internal testing milestones are met on schedule. Major catalyst events would include official announcements from OpenAI, leaked documentation about readiness status, or the actual release announcement itself, which would resolve all contracts simultaneously. Key factors: - Contract pricing shows 23-percentage-point gap between October 23 release odds (22¢) and November 6 odds (29¢), indicating traders expect delay beyond late October - Zero trading volume across all contracts in past 24 hours suggests low market engagement and potentially stale pricing - October 9 contract priced at only 6¢ implies very low confidence in near-term release despite current date being September 19 - OpenAI's previous release schedule and stated development roadmap would need to be publicly available to validate when version milestones are credibly expected - November 6 deadline is 48 days away, providing substantial runway for either acceleration (raising probabilities) or delay announcements (lowering them) Contracts: - Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Nov 13, 2026?: Before Nov 13, 2026 — 31¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Nov 6, 2026?: Before Nov 6, 2026 — 27¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Oct 30, 2026?: Before Oct 30, 2026 — 26¢ Kalshi $78 (weight 100%) - Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Oct 23, 2026?: Before Oct 23, 2026 — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Oct 9, 2026?: Before Oct 9, 2026 — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Oct 16, 2026?: Before Oct 16, 2026 — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Oct 2, 2026?: Before Oct 2, 2026 — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Sep 25, 2026?: Before Sep 25, 2026 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-20T22:20:49.913Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "31% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/gpt-astra61 Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20OpenAI%20release%20Astra%206.1%20before%20Sep%2025%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev