76% — Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Jun 1, 2026 Leader: Before Jul 31, 2026 at 76% · Kalshi 76% · 11 contracts · $81K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 11:28:11 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 11 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability estimates the chance that OpenAI releases GPT-6 within the next 29 days, by June 1, 2026. The 78% probability suggests significant market confidence in a near-term release, though it notably exceeds the 44% average from Kalshi contracts, indicating possible divergence in market expectations. The main drivers of this elevated probability would be OpenAI's recent development pace and any public statements about release timelines, while factors weighing against it include the typical 18-24 month gap between major GPT versions historically. The most critical catalyst is any official announcement from OpenAI regarding GPT-6 availability or launch timing, which would immediately clarify whether a May or early June release is genuinely planned. Current market signals show mixed confidence given the data from related prediction contracts. Key factors: - Historical release patterns show approximately 18-24 months between major GPT versions (GPT-4 in March 2023 to GPT-5 timeframe), making a May 2026 release earlier than the typical cycle - The 34-point gap between SimpleFunctions' 78% and Kalshi's aggregated 44% probability suggests potential arbitrage opportunity or different information sets between prediction markets - No public statements from OpenAI leadership as of early May 2026 have confirmed GPT-6 availability within the specified timeframe - The compressed 29-day window makes this a binary event with limited opportunity for gradual probability adjustment based on incremental news - A June 1 deadline occurring on a weekend may affect actual release timing if OpenAI follows typical software release patterns of weekday deployments Contracts: - Will OpenAI release GPT-5.6 before Jul 31, 2026?: Before Jul 31, 2026 — 76¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 8%) - Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Jan 1, 2027?: Before 2027 — 59¢ Kalshi $149 (weight 0%) - Will OpenAI release GPT-5.6 before Jul 15, 2026?: Before Jul 15, 2026 — 58¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 3%) - Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026 — 42¢ Kalshi $180 (weight 0%) - Will OpenAI release GPT-5.6 before Jul 10, 2026?: Before Jul 10, 2026 — 37¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 4%) - Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 30¢ Kalshi $736 (weight 1%) - Will OpenAI release GPT-5.6 before Jul 7, 2026?: Before Jul 7, 2026 — 18¢ Kalshi $408 (weight 1%) - Will OpenAI release GPT-5.6 before Jul 3, 2026?: Before Jul 3, 2026 — 15¢ Kalshi $19K (weight 24%) - ... and 3 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T11:20:50.574Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "76% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/gpt-open Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20OpenAI%20release%20GPT-6%20before%20Jun%201%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev