71% — Will OpenAI release GPT-5.6 before Jul 15, 2026 Leader: Before Jul 31, 2026 at 71% · Kalshi 71% · 5 contracts · $108K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-25 23:44:36 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability reflects market expectations that OpenAI will announce or release GPT-5.6 within the next 29 days (by July 15, 2026). The high 91% price suggests traders believe a release is likely imminent, though contracts for earlier dates show uncertainty about exact timing—the June 19 contract trades at only 12%, indicating skepticism about a release in the next three days. The main drivers are OpenAI's typical release cadence, any public announcements or roadmap signals, and competitive pressures from other AI labs. The primary catalyst will be any official statement from OpenAI about GPT-5.6 availability, whether through a press release, blog post, or developer announcement. If no release occurs by mid-July, the probability would face significant downward pressure, suggesting traders see a narrow window for this outcome. Key factors: - The 12-cent price on the June 19 deadline versus 91 cents on July 15 indicates most expected release probability is concentrated in late June or early July, not immediately - OpenAI has not made a public announcement of GPT-5.6 as of June 16, 2026, making any near-term release speculative rather than confirmed - The 97-cent price on the July 31 contract suggests traders view a release by end-of-month as nearly certain, but the July 15 cutoff narrows this to a specific two-week window - Trading volume is minimal across most contracts ($0-$330 in 24h), suggesting limited market conviction and potential for significant repricing on news - Success requires both model completion and OpenAI's decision to release under the 5.6 designation rather than delay or rebrand Contracts: - Will OpenAI release GPT-5.6 before Jul 31, 2026?: Before Jul 31, 2026 — 71¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 6%) - Will OpenAI release GPT-5.6 before Jul 15, 2026?: Before Jul 15, 2026 — 62¢ Kalshi $437 (weight 0%) - Will OpenAI release GPT-5.6 before Jul 10, 2026?: Before Jul 10, 2026 — 37¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 5%) - Will OpenAI release GPT-5.6 before Jul 3, 2026?: Before Jul 3, 2026 — 6¢ Kalshi $25K (weight 23%) - Will OpenAI release GPT-5.6 before Jun 30, 2026?: Before Jun 30, 2026 — 5¢ Kalshi $70K (weight 65%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-25T23:20:49.610Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "71% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/gpt-openb Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20OpenAI%20release%20GPT-5.6%20before%20Jul%2015%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev