83% — GPT-5.6 released by...
Leader: July 31 at 83% · Polymarket 83% · 6 contracts · $32K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:44:02 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The market assigns a 92% probability that GPT-5.6 will be released by July 31, 2026, based on aggregated predictions across six outcome-based contracts. This reflects trader expectations about OpenAI's development timeline and release cadence. The high concentration of probability around July 31 suggests most traders expect the model within roughly two months, while tail probabilities at May 31 and June 5 are minimal at 6% and 34% respectively. The outcome hinges on OpenAI's internal development progress, any public announcements about release dates, and competitive pressures from other labs like Anthropic or Google. The key uncertainty is whether announced or leaked timelines will shift the distribution earlier or later. Major catalysts include OpenAI developer conferences, earnings calls, or official statements about GPT-5.6 availability.

Key factors:
- OpenAI's historical release cadence and public roadmap disclosures will directly constrain plausible timelines
- Competitive announcements from Anthropic, Google, or Meta about advanced model releases may accelerate or delay market expectations
- Technical delays or safety review processes at OpenAI could push release past July 31, shifting probability mass to later dates
- Early access or beta announcements would partially resolve uncertainty before general release, affecting contract pricing
- The 92% weight on July 31 versus 70% on June 15 indicates traders expect development to extend into late Q2 or early Q3 2026

Contracts:
- GPT-5.6 released by...?: July 31 — 83¢ Polymarket $6K (weight 19%)
- GPT-5.6 released by...?: June 30 — 80¢ Polymarket $4K (weight 11%)
- GPT-5.6 released by...?: June 15 — 60¢ Polymarket $3K (weight 9%)
- GPT-5.6 released by...?: June 8 — 45¢ Polymarket $7K (weight 21%)
- GPT-5.6 released by...?: June 5 — 44¢ Polymarket $3K (weight 11%)
- GPT-5.6 released by...?: May 31 — 8¢ Polymarket $9K (weight 29%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:10.579Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "83% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/gpt56-released
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=GPT-5.6%20released%20by...
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev