78% — Will Grab Holdings Limited report Above 60.5 million monthly transacting users in 2026
Leader: Above 55 million at 78% · Kalshi 78% · 14 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 01:45:59 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 14 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Grab Holdings will report above 60.5 million monthly transacting users by year-end 2026. The relatively high odds at 73% suggest traders believe the Southeast Asian mobility and delivery platform will sustain or grow its user base through 2026. User growth could be driven by continued expansion in ride-sharing and food delivery across the region, or constrained by competition or slowing consumer spending. Resolution depends on Grab's official financial reports, typically released in earnings announcements following each quarter. The price clustering around 55–56.5 million suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether the platform will reach the higher thresholds, even as traders favor outcomes in the 55+ million range.

Key factors:
- Grab's reported monthly transacting users at end of 2025 and trend velocity entering 2026
- Competition intensity and pricing pressure from Gojek, Foodpanda, and other regional platforms affecting market share
- Macroeconomic conditions in Southeast Asia affecting consumer spending on mobility and delivery services
- Grab's capacity to expand into new verticals or geographic regions to drive incremental user acquisition
- Official user metrics disclosed in Grab's quarterly or annual financial reports for 2026

Contracts:
- Will Grab Holdings Limited report Above 55 million monthly transacting users in 2026?: Above 55 million — 78¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will Grab Holdings Limited report Above 55.5 million monthly transacting users in 2026?: Above 55.5 million — 72¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will Grab Holdings Limited report Above 56 million monthly transacting users in 2026?: Above 56 million — 65¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will Grab Holdings Limited report Above 56.5 million monthly transacting users in 2026?: Above 56.5 million — 55¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will Grab Holdings Limited report Above 57 million monthly transacting users in 2026?: Above 57 million — 49¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will Grab Holdings Limited report Above 57.5 million monthly transacting users in 2026?: Above 57.5 million — 35¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will Grab Holdings Limited report Above 58 million monthly transacting users in 2026?: Above 58 million — 24¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- Will Grab Holdings Limited report Above 58.5 million monthly transacting users in 2026?: Above 58.5 million — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 7%)
- ... and 6 more

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-29T01:20:50.701Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "78% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/graba
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Grab%20Holdings%20Limited%20report%20Above%2060.5%20million%20monthly%20transacting%20users%20in%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev