75% — 2026 Grammy nominees for Best Rap Album
Leader: The Fall-Off at 75% · Kalshi 75% · 5 contracts · $242 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-27 04:11:37 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This represents the market's assessment that 'The Fall-Off' will be included in the 2026 Grammy Awards Best Rap Album category nominees. Currently priced at 77 cents, it significantly leads rivals like 'Don't Be Dumb' (73 cents) and 'OCTANE' (24 cents). The high probability reflects confidence in the album's commercial performance and critical reception relative to competitors. Market pricing could shift based on streaming metrics, critical reviews, and industry momentum for competing albums through the nomination period. The 2026 Grammy nomination announcement—scheduled for November 2025 according to typical Grammy timelines—serves as the resolution event. Until then, album releases, chart performance, and industry recognition will likely influence market sentiment around which projects secure spots in the final nominee pool.

Key factors:
- 'The Fall-Off' maintains a 4-point pricing advantage over the second-place contender, suggesting market differentiation rather than consensus uncertainty
- Typical Grammy Best Rap Album fields include 5-8 nominees, meaning multiple albums from this contract set could be selected simultaneously, creating correlated rather than mutually exclusive outcomes
- 24-hour trading volumes are modest ($4-$55 range), indicating limited liquidity and potential sensitivity to new information or concentrated positioning
- The album's commercial trajectory through mid-2026—streaming performance, radio play, and industry award nominations—will provide concrete data points before Grammy voting
- Grammy nomination voting typically closes in September-October of award year, creating a defined window for market-moving announcements or releases

Contracts:
- 2026 Grammy nominees for Best Rap Album?: The Fall-Off — 75¢ Kalshi $207 (weight 86%)
- 2026 Grammy nominees for Best Rap Album?: Don't Be Dumb — 72¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- 2026 Grammy nominees for Best Rap Album?: ICEMAN — 36¢ Kalshi $21 (weight 9%)
- 2026 Grammy nominees for Best Rap Album?: OCTANE — 17¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 2%)
- 2026 Grammy nominees for Best Rap Album?: Bully — 11¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 4%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-27T03:20:49.276Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "75% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/grammynombra
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=2026%20Grammy%20nominees%20for%20Best%20Rap%20Album
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev