90% — 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year
Leader: The Fate of Ophelia at 90% · Kalshi 90% · 6 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 07:47:25 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 92% probability indicates market participants assess a very high likelihood that 'The Fate of Ophelia' will be nominated for the 2026 Grammy Award for Record of the Year. The Grammy nominations announcement, scheduled for November 2026, represents the sole mechanism for resolving this outcome with certainty. Current trading volume on this contract ($83 in 24-hour volume) remains modest, suggesting limited active disagreement about the outcome. The high probability reflects either strong confidence in the track's eligibility and Grammy visibility, or relatively thin trading preventing significant price discovery. Factors supporting nomination include the song's apparent commercial or critical recognition, though the exact voting patterns of Recording Academy members remain inherently uncertain. Any major developments affecting the track's status—such as disqualification, re-categorization, or competing releases gaining prominence—could shift market expectations before nomination ballots close.

Key factors:
- 'The Fate of Ophelia' must meet technical Grammy eligibility requirements (release date, format, copyright registration) with no disqualifications or disputes
- Recording Academy voters' familiarity with and preference for the track relative to other Record of the Year contenders in the final voting pool
- Comparative performance and industry momentum of competing songs in the same category during the August-October 2026 voting window
- Volume and depth of trading activity on this contract remain low ($83 24h volume), limiting confidence in price as a true reflection of distributed opinion
- The November 2026 Grammy nomination announcement date is the only definitive resolution event; no intermediate data points resolve partial uncertainty

Contracts:
- 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year?: The Fate of Ophelia — 90¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year?: Man I Need — 83¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year?: I Just Might — 76¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year?: Choosin' Texas — 75¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year?: Aperture — 56¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)
- 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year?: So Easy (To Fall In Love) — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 17%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-26T07:20:49.332Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "90% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/grammynomsoty
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=2026%20Grammy%20nominees%20for%20Song%20of%20the%20Year
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev