3% — Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30
Polymarket 3% · 1 contracts · $53K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 19:59:23 UTC

Contracts:
- Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? — 3¢ Polymarket $53K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T19:20:08.304Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "3% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/greece-x-turkey-military-engagement-june-30
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Greece%20x%20Turkey%20military%20engagement%20by%20June%2030
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev