15% — Will British Columbia Lions win the CFL Grey Cup
Kalshi 15% · 6 contracts · $4 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-21 23:35:01 UTC

Why this matters:
The British Columbia Lions have an 8% probability of winning the 2026 CFL Grey Cup, based on aggregated odds from prediction markets. This represents roughly a 1-in-12 chance the Lions capture Canadian football's championship. The Lions' current odds reflect their competitive position relative to stronger teams like the Montreal Alouettes (11% probability), who appear favored. Key factors influencing this probability include the Lions' recent performance record, roster strength compared to other CFL teams, and their health status heading into the season. The main catalyst for resolving uncertainty around these odds will be the Grey Cup championship game itself, scheduled for late November 2026, though regular-season performance from June through October will incrementally adjust market expectations based on actual game results and standings.

Key factors:
- British Columbia Lions' win-loss record and playoff positioning through the 2026 regular season (June-October) directly affects their championship odds
- Injury status of key offensive and defensive players, particularly quarterbacks and defensive leaders, compared to competitors
- Head-to-head performance against other top contenders like Montreal Alouettes and other strong teams during the regular season
- Overall CFL roster depth and free-agency acquisitions made by the Lions versus other franchises entering the season
- Recent historical playoff success rate and Grey Cup appearances by the Lions organization versus current frontrunners

Contracts:
- Will Montreal Alouettes win the CFL Grey Cup?: Montreal Alouettes — 35¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 100%)
- Will Saskatchewan Roughriders win the CFL Grey Cup?: Saskatchewan Roughriders — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Edmonton Elks win the CFL Grey Cup?: Edmonton Elks — 19¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Winnipeg Blue Bombers win the CFL Grey Cup?: Winnipeg Blue Bombers — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will British Columbia Lions win the CFL Grey Cup?: British Columbia Lions — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Calgary Stampeders win the CFL Grey Cup?: Calgary Stampeders — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-21T23:20:55.132Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "15% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/greycup
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20British%20Columbia%20Lions%20win%20the%20CFL%20Grey%20Cup
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev